Glossary

Quick reference for all metrics and terms used across Polyanna.

PnL (Profit and Loss)Learn more →: Total gains minus losses from all prediction market positions, including mark-to-market value of open positions at current mid-prices. Displayed in USD. Positive values indicate net profit; negative values indicate net loss.
PnL DistributionLearn more →: Platform-wide histogram of trader all-time PnL, split into seventeen decade-scaled buckets symmetric around a ±$1 break-even band. Each bucket shows how many traders landed there and the sum of their PnL, so tail effects (whales, catastrophic losses) are visible next to the much larger break-even crowd. Can be filtered to bots only.
Win RateLearn more →: Percentage of resolved positions that ended in profit. A win rate above 50% means the trader profits on more positions than they lose, though it does not account for the magnitude of wins vs. losses.
ROI (Return on Investment)Learn more →: PnL divided by total capital deployed (sum of all buy order costs). Expressed as a percentage. An ROI of +10% means the trader earned 10 cents for every dollar invested.
Sharpe RatioLearn more →: Risk-adjusted return metric. Measures excess return per unit of volatility in position outcomes. Higher values indicate better risk-adjusted performance. Values above 1.0 are generally considered good; above 2.0 is excellent.
Max DrawdownLearn more →: The largest peak-to-trough decline in a trader's cumulative PnL curve. Represents the worst losing streak in dollar terms. A smaller max drawdown indicates more consistent performance.
Bot ProbabilityLearn more →: Estimated likelihood (0–100%) that a wallet is operated by an automated trading bot, based on heuristic analysis of trading frequency, timing patterns, order size consistency, and market participation breadth.
Performance AttributionLearn more →: A signal-level measure of trader performance relative to the profiled baseline universe. It groups related market themes to show where a trader tends to outperform or underperform.
Attribution ConfidenceLearn more →: A sample-size indicator attached to Performance Attribution rows. Higher confidence means the trader has enough qualifying history in that signal for the result to be more informative.
Smart-Money SignalsLearn more →: Active market opportunities where Polyanna's proven trader groups are taking meaningful positions, especially when they disagree with current odds. Public users see the opportunity list, category concentration, group size, and teaser market rows. Pro users see market-level divergence, total position size, and trader entries.
Smart-Money DivergenceLearn more →: Difference between Smart-Money YES positioning and current market YES price. A +12% divergence means the trader group is 12 percentage points more YES-aligned than the market price.
Smart-Money Trader GroupLearn more →: Weekly snapshot of wallets from a qualifying leaderboard. The current groups are Top PnL, Most Consistent, and High Conviction.
No Public Profile: This trader hasn't claimed a username on Polymarket. They can only be identified by their wallet address. Many active traders — especially bots — never set up a public profile, so this badge simply indicates the absence of a user-chosen display name, not any issue with the account.
Max Session BuyLearn more →: The largest single taker-side buy session for a trader. Sessions are 1-hour windows grouped by market and direction. A $50K session means the trader bought $50K of outcome tokens in a single market within one hour.
InvestedLearn more →: Total dollars spent buying positions. This is the cost basis used in the ROI leaderboard to show how much capital a trader put to work.
ReturnLearn more →: Invested capital plus PnL (including mark-to-market). In the ROI leaderboard, this shows the dollars that came back relative to the trader's cost basis.
Buy Ratio: Fraction of a trader's total USD volume that consists of buys (total bought / USD volume). A high buy ratio indicates a taker who primarily enters positions rather than providing liquidity as a market maker.
High Volume Market Ratio: Fraction of a trader's volume that occurs in markets in the top 10% by volume (90th percentile). A high ratio means the trader focuses on liquid, high-volume markets that are easier to enter and exit — important for copy-trading.
Redeem RatioLearn more →: Fraction of a trader's exit USD that was realized via on-chain redemption rather than a secondary-market sell. Computed as redeem USD / (redeem USD + sell USD). A high redeem ratio indicates the trader holds winning positions through resolution rather than churning out early. Used by the High-Conviction Buyer leaderboard preset.
Trades / DayLearn more →: Average trading cadence: trade count divided by the trader's active span (last filled order timestamp − first filled order timestamp, floored at one day). Useful for distinguishing accumulator archetypes from very high-frequency strategies — both can be profitable, but their copyability is very different.
Crypto Up/Down Vol FractionLearn more →: Fraction of a trader's total volume that falls on crypto up/down markets (5m/15m/hourly BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, HYPE, BNB). Used as the primary inclusion gate for the Crypto Scalper leaderboard preset (≥ 90%).
Weather Market Vol FractionLearn more →: Fraction of a trader's total volume that falls on markets classified as Weather. Used as the primary inclusion gate for the Weather Sharps leaderboard preset (≥ 90%).
Moves / MarketLearn more →: Average number of filled orders per distinct market (trade_count / market_count). Low values indicate targeted entry/exit behaviour; high values indicate frequent position management or noisy scalping. The specialty presets use a maximum of 3.0 to filter out traders who churn excessively within each market.
Activity Freshness: The recency badge shown on leaderboard rows. It classifies a trader as 7d active, 30d active, 90d active, or Stale based on recent meaningful buy-side activity. Period leaderboards hide redundant badges: 30d only shows 7d active, 90d shows 7d and 30d active, and all-time can show every freshness state. On Copyable, High-Conviction Buyer, and specialty tabs, freshness can also adjust ranking so inactive historical accounts do not crowd out traders who are still active now.
Share Volume: Total number of outcome token contracts traded (buys and sells combined). This is the metric Polymarket uses for its own leaderboard rankings. Because token prices vary, share volume can diverge significantly from USD volume.
USD Volume: Total USD value of all filled orders (buys and sells combined). Raw on-chain amounts are converted from USDC units (divided by 10⁶). Represents actual cash flow rather than contract count.
Trades: Total number of filled orders across all markets. Each filled order (buy or sell execution) counts as one trade.
Markets: Number of distinct prediction markets in which the trader has at least one filled order. Higher market count indicates broader diversification.
Total Traders: Count of unique wallet addresses with at least one indexed filled order in the current dataset.
Orders Filled: Total number of on-chain filled orders indexed across the current dataset.
Estimated BotsLearn more →: Number of wallets classified as likely bots by our heuristic detection system in the current dataset.
Markets Tracked: Total number of prediction markets with at least one indexed trade in the current dataset.
Trade AlertLearn more →: A notification sent when an indexed filled order matches a watchlisted trader. When live ingestion is active, delivery is via Telegram, email, or webhook within roughly 60 seconds of the on-chain filled order. Pro feature.
Batch AlertLearn more →: A summary notification sent when a watchlisted trader makes 5 or more trades in a short window. Instead of individual alerts, you receive one message with total trades, USD volume, net direction, and markets involved.
Daily DigestLearn more →: A once-a-day email summarizing all trade alerts from the past 24 hours, grouped by trader. Sent at a user-configured hour (UTC).
Data Cutoff: Timestamp of the most recent on-chain filled order included in the current analytics snapshot. New filled orders are indexed through Polygon RPC, and analytics can lag the latest on-chain activity while market context is resolved and metrics refresh.
Bot Trade ShareLearn more →: Share of platform filled orders (trade count) attributed to wallets with bot score at or above Polyanna's bot filter threshold. Complements Bot Volume Share by capturing whether bots dominate the order count even when their volume share is modest.
Favorite Win RateLearn more →: Fraction of qualifying resolved markets where the crowd's preferred side (the "favorite") actually won. Two independent signals are computed: price favorite (side priced above 50% at midpoint), midpoint volume (side with more cumulative USD volume before midpoint). Each signal has its own win rate and sample size.

Glossary

Quick reference for all metrics and terms used across Polyanna.

PnL (Profit and Loss)Learn more →

Total gains minus losses from all prediction market positions, including mark-to-market value of open positions at current mid-prices. Displayed in USD. Positive values indicate net profit; negative values indicate net loss.

PnL DistributionLearn more →

Platform-wide histogram of trader all-time PnL, split into seventeen decade-scaled buckets symmetric around a ±$1 break-even band. Each bucket shows how many traders landed there and the sum of their PnL, so tail effects (whales, catastrophic losses) are visible next to the much larger break-even crowd. Can be filtered to bots only.

Win RateLearn more →

Percentage of resolved positions that ended in profit. A win rate above 50% means the trader profits on more positions than they lose, though it does not account for the magnitude of wins vs. losses.

ROI (Return on Investment)Learn more →

PnL divided by total capital deployed (sum of all buy order costs). Expressed as a percentage. An ROI of +10% means the trader earned 10 cents for every dollar invested.

Sharpe RatioLearn more →

Risk-adjusted return metric. Measures excess return per unit of volatility in position outcomes. Higher values indicate better risk-adjusted performance. Values above 1.0 are generally considered good; above 2.0 is excellent.

Max DrawdownLearn more →

The largest peak-to-trough decline in a trader's cumulative PnL curve. Represents the worst losing streak in dollar terms. A smaller max drawdown indicates more consistent performance.

Bot ProbabilityLearn more →

Estimated likelihood (0–100%) that a wallet is operated by an automated trading bot, based on heuristic analysis of trading frequency, timing patterns, order size consistency, and market participation breadth.

Performance AttributionLearn more →

A signal-level measure of trader performance relative to the profiled baseline universe. It groups related market themes to show where a trader tends to outperform or underperform.

Attribution ConfidenceLearn more →

A sample-size indicator attached to Performance Attribution rows. Higher confidence means the trader has enough qualifying history in that signal for the result to be more informative.

Smart-Money SignalsLearn more →

Active market opportunities where Polyanna's proven trader groups are taking meaningful positions, especially when they disagree with current odds. Public users see the opportunity list, category concentration, group size, and teaser market rows. Pro users see market-level divergence, total position size, and trader entries.

Smart-Money DivergenceLearn more →

Difference between Smart-Money YES positioning and current market YES price. A +12% divergence means the trader group is 12 percentage points more YES-aligned than the market price.

Smart-Money Trader GroupLearn more →

Weekly snapshot of wallets from a qualifying leaderboard. The current groups are Top PnL, Most Consistent, and High Conviction.

No Public Profile

This trader hasn't claimed a username on Polymarket. They can only be identified by their wallet address. Many active traders — especially bots — never set up a public profile, so this badge simply indicates the absence of a user-chosen display name, not any issue with the account.

Max Session BuyLearn more →

The largest single taker-side buy session for a trader. Sessions are 1-hour windows grouped by market and direction. A $50K session means the trader bought $50K of outcome tokens in a single market within one hour.

InvestedLearn more →

Total dollars spent buying positions. This is the cost basis used in the ROI leaderboard to show how much capital a trader put to work.

ReturnLearn more →

Invested capital plus PnL (including mark-to-market). In the ROI leaderboard, this shows the dollars that came back relative to the trader's cost basis.

Buy Ratio

Fraction of a trader's total USD volume that consists of buys (total bought / USD volume). A high buy ratio indicates a taker who primarily enters positions rather than providing liquidity as a market maker.

High Volume Market Ratio

Fraction of a trader's volume that occurs in markets in the top 10% by volume (90th percentile). A high ratio means the trader focuses on liquid, high-volume markets that are easier to enter and exit — important for copy-trading.

Redeem RatioLearn more →

Fraction of a trader's exit USD that was realized via on-chain redemption rather than a secondary-market sell. Computed as redeem USD / (redeem USD + sell USD). A high redeem ratio indicates the trader holds winning positions through resolution rather than churning out early. Used by the High-Conviction Buyer leaderboard preset.

Trades / DayLearn more →

Average trading cadence: trade count divided by the trader's active span (last filled order timestamp − first filled order timestamp, floored at one day). Useful for distinguishing accumulator archetypes from very high-frequency strategies — both can be profitable, but their copyability is very different.

Crypto Up/Down Vol FractionLearn more →

Fraction of a trader's total volume that falls on crypto up/down markets (5m/15m/hourly BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, HYPE, BNB). Used as the primary inclusion gate for the Crypto Scalper leaderboard preset (≥ 90%).

Weather Market Vol FractionLearn more →

Fraction of a trader's total volume that falls on markets classified as Weather. Used as the primary inclusion gate for the Weather Sharps leaderboard preset (≥ 90%).

Moves / MarketLearn more →

Average number of filled orders per distinct market (trade_count / market_count). Low values indicate targeted entry/exit behaviour; high values indicate frequent position management or noisy scalping. The specialty presets use a maximum of 3.0 to filter out traders who churn excessively within each market.

Activity Freshness

The recency badge shown on leaderboard rows. It classifies a trader as 7d active, 30d active, 90d active, or Stale based on recent meaningful buy-side activity. Period leaderboards hide redundant badges: 30d only shows 7d active, 90d shows 7d and 30d active, and all-time can show every freshness state. On Copyable, High-Conviction Buyer, and specialty tabs, freshness can also adjust ranking so inactive historical accounts do not crowd out traders who are still active now.

USD Volume

Total USD value of all filled orders (buys and sells combined). Raw on-chain amounts are converted from USDC units (divided by 10⁶). Represents actual cash flow rather than contract count.

Trades

Total number of filled orders across all markets. Each filled order (buy or sell execution) counts as one trade.

Markets

Number of distinct prediction markets in which the trader has at least one filled order. Higher market count indicates broader diversification.

Total Traders

Count of unique wallet addresses with at least one indexed filled order in the current dataset.

Orders Filled

Total number of on-chain filled orders indexed across the current dataset.

Estimated BotsLearn more →

Number of wallets classified as likely bots by our heuristic detection system in the current dataset.

Markets Tracked

Total number of prediction markets with at least one indexed trade in the current dataset.

Trade AlertLearn more →

A notification sent when an indexed filled order matches a watchlisted trader. When live ingestion is active, delivery is via Telegram, email, or webhook within roughly 60 seconds of the on-chain filled order. Pro feature.

Batch AlertLearn more →

A summary notification sent when a watchlisted trader makes 5 or more trades in a short window. Instead of individual alerts, you receive one message with total trades, USD volume, net direction, and markets involved.

Daily DigestLearn more →

A once-a-day email summarizing all trade alerts from the past 24 hours, grouped by trader. Sent at a user-configured hour (UTC).

Data Cutoff

Timestamp of the most recent on-chain filled order included in the current analytics snapshot. New filled orders are indexed through Polygon RPC, and analytics can lag the latest on-chain activity while market context is resolved and metrics refresh.

Favorite Win RateLearn more →

Fraction of qualifying resolved markets where the crowd's preferred side (the "favorite") actually won. Two independent signals are computed: price favorite (side priced above 50% at midpoint), midpoint volume (side with more cumulative USD volume before midpoint). Each signal has its own win rate and sample size.